Random forest model in tax risk identification of real estate enterprise income tax.

The text describes improvements made to the random forest model to enhance its distinctiveness in addressing tax risks within the real estate industry, thereby tackling issues related to tax losses. Firstly, the paper introduces the potential application of the random forest model in identifying tax risks. Subsequently, the experimental analysis focuses on the selection of indicators for tax risk. Finally, the paper develops and utilizes actual taxpayer data to test a risk identification model, confirming its effectiveness. The experimental results indicate that the model's output report includes basic taxpayer information, a summary of tax compliance risks, value-added tax refund situations, directions of suspicious items, and detailed information on common indicators. This paper comprehensively presents detailed taxpayer data, providing an intuitive understanding of tax-related risks. Additionally, the paper reveals the level of enterprise risk registration assessment, risk probability, risk value, and risk assessment ranking. Further analysis shows that enterprise risk points primarily exist in operating income, selling expenses, financial expenses, and total profit. Additionally, the results indicate significant differences between the model's judgment values and declared values, especially in the high-risk probability of total operating income and profit. This implies a significant underreporting issue concerning corporate income tax for real estate enterprises. Therefore, this paper contributes to enhancing the identification of tax risks for real estate enterprises. Using the optimized random forest model makes it possible to accurately assess enterprises' tax compliance risks and identify specific risk points.

Income composition inequality of Chinese residents and fiscal redistribution effect: An empirical analysis on individual income tax and transfer system.

Based on the data of China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this paper decomposed Chinese residents' income into labor income and capital income by income source, and measured the income inequality and income composition inequality of Chinese residents during 2010-2018. We take the Gini coefficient as a measure of inequality and, by decomposing it by income source, analyze the absolute and relative marginal effects of capital income and labor income on the overall income inequality. On this basis, this paper discusses the redistributive effect of financial instruments such as personal income tax and transfer payment on income inequality and income composition inequality. The results show that capital income is not only the main driving factor for the increase of overall income inequality, but also its influence on inequality is gradually increasing. The results of the redistribution effect of fiscal instruments show that although individual income tax and transfer payment both help to reduce the overall income inequality, only individual income tax can reduce the inequality of income composition, while transfer payment will exacerbate it. In the background of the rising share of capital income, it may widen the income distribution gap in the long run. Hence, future fiscal redistribution efforts should consider the income composition inequality. This includes further promotion of individual income tax reforms, optimization of the tax rate structure, enhancement of relevant tax laws governing capital income like property income, and continuous improvement in the redistributive impact of fiscal instruments.

Revisiting the effects of state earned income tax credits on infant health: a quasi-experimental study using contiguous border counties approach.

BACKGROUND: To examine the effects of refundable state earned income tax credits (EITC) on infant health. METHODS: We use the restricted-access U.S. birth certificate data with county codes from 1989 to 2018. Birth outcomes include birth weight, low birth weight, gestational weeks, preterm birth, and the fetal growth rate. The analytical sample includes single mothers with high school education or less. Two specifications of two-way fixed effects models are employed. The first specification accounts for shared time trends across all states/counties. The second specification estimates effects based on EITC changes within contiguous counties across state borders which accounts for contemporaneous events specific to each contiguous county pair. Models are estimated pooling and stratifying by parity subgroups. RESULTS: Under the first specification, refundable state EITC is associated with improved birth outcomes. Pooling all parity, a 10%-point increase in refundable EITC is associated with an 8-gram increase in birth weight (95% CI: 2.9,14.6). The effect increases by parity. In contrast, the estimates from the second model are much smaller and statistically non-significant, both pooling and stratifying by parity. CONCLUSIONS: Comparing contiguous counties across state borders, there is no evidence that refundable state EITC affects birth outcomes. However, the estimates still do not rule out moderate to large benefits for third or higher born infants.

Estimating the effect of timing of earned income tax credit refunds on perinatal outcomes: a quasi-experimental study of California births.

BACKGROUND: The largest poverty alleviation program in the US is the earned income tax credit (EITC), providing $60 billion to over 25 million families annually. While research has shown positive impacts of EITC receipt in pregnancy, there is little evidence on whether the timing of receipt may lead to differences in pregnancy outcomes. We used a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences design, taking advantage of EITC tax disbursement each spring to examine whether trimester of receipt was associated with perinatal outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a difference-in-differences analysis of California linked birth certificate and hospital discharge records. The sample was drawn from the linked CA birth certificate and discharge records from 2007-2012 (N = 2,740,707). To predict eligibility, we created a probabilistic algorithm in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and applied it to the CA data. Primary outcome measures included preterm birth, small-for-gestational age (SGA), gestational diabetes, and gestational hypertension/preeclampsia. RESULTS: Eligibility for EITC receipt during the third trimester was associated with a lower risk of preterm birth compared with preconception. Eligibility for receipt in the preconception period resulted in improved gestational hypertension and SGA. CONCLUSION: This analysis offers a novel method to impute EITC eligibility using a probabilistic algorithm in a data set with richer sociodemographic information relative to the clinical and administrative data sets from which outcomes are drawn. These results could be used to determine the optimal intervention time point for future income supplementation policies. Future work should examine frequent income supplementation such as the minimum wage or basic income programs.

Potential mechanisms linking poverty alleviation and health: an analysis of benefit spending among recipients of the U.S. earned income tax credit.

BACKGROUND: The earned income tax credit (EITC) is the largest U.S. poverty alleviation program for low-income families, disbursed annually as a lump-sum tax refund. Despite its well-documented health impacts, the mechanisms through which the EITC affects health are not well understood. The objective of this analysis was to examine self-reported spending patterns of tax refunds among EITC recipients to clarify potential pathways through which income may affect health. METHODS: We first examined spending patterns among 2020-2021 Assessing California Communities' Experiences with Safety Net Supports (ACCESS) study participants (N = 241) and then stratified the analysis by key demographic subgroups. RESULTS: More than half of EITC recipients reported spending their tax refunds on bills and debt (52.3%), followed by 49.4% on housing, and 37.8% on vehicles. Only 3.3% reported spending on healthcare. (Note: respondents could list more than one possible spending category.) Participants ages 30 + were more likely to spend on bills and debt relative to those ages 18-29 (57.6% versus 39.4%, respectively). Other subgroup analyses did not yield significant findings. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that EITC recipients primarily use their refunds on bills and debt, as well as on household and vehicle expenses. This supports the idea of the EITC as a safety net policy which addresses key social determinants of health.

Evidence for the Role of State-Level Economic Policy in HIV Risk Reduction: State Earned Income Tax Credit Generosity and HIV Risk Behavior Among Single Mothers.

We investigated the impact of State-level Earned Income Tax Credit (SEITC) generosity on HIV risk behavior among single mothers with low education. We merged individual-level data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (2002-2018) with state-level data from the University of Kentucky Center for Poverty Research and conducted a multi-state, multi-year difference-in-differences (DID) analysis. We found that a refundable SEITC ≥ 10% of the Federal Earned Income Tax Credit was associated with 21% relative risk reduction in reporting any high-risk behavior for HIV in the last year, relative to no SEITC. We also found that a 10-percentage point increase in SEITC generosity was associated with 38% relative risk reduction in reporting any high-risk HIV behavior in the last year. SEITC policy may be an important strategy to reduce the burden of HIV infections among women with low socioeconomic status, particularly single mothers.

RESUMEN: Investigamos el impacto de la generosidad del Crédito Federal Tributario por Ingreso de Trabajo a nivel estatal (SEITC) sobre el comportamiento de riesgo al VIH entre madres solteras con baja educación. Unimos los datos a nivel individual del Sistema de Vigilancia a Factores de Riesgo de Comportamiento (2002­2018) con los datos a nivel estatal del Centro de Investigación de la Pobreza de la Universidad de Kentucky, y conducimos un análisis de diferencia-en-diferencia (DID) multi-estado y multi-año. Encontramos que un reembolso SEITC ≥ 10% del Crédito Federal Tributario por Ingreso de Trabajo estaba asociado con una reducción relativa de riesgo de 21% en reportar cualquier comportamiento de riesgo alto al VIH en el último año, relativo a ningún SEITC. También encontramos que un aumento de punto porcentual de 10 en la generosidad SEITC estaba asociado con una reducción relativa de riesgo de 38% en reportar cualquier comportamiento de riesgo alto al VIH en el último año. La póliza SEITC puede ser una estrategia importante para reducir la carga de infecciones al VIH entre mujeres con bajo nivel socioeconómico, particularmente entre madres solteras.

Earned Income Tax Credit Receipt By Hispanic Families With Children: State Outreach And Demographic Factors.

The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), the largest refundable tax credit for low-to-middle-income US families with children, has been shown to improve maternal and child health and reduce public spending on health. However, many eligible families do not receive it. This study used 2014 Survey of Income and Program Participation data to explore predictors of EITC receipt among Hispanic families, an understudied segment of the eligible population. We found lower likelihoods of receipt among Hispanic income-eligible families, even those who were eligible US citizens by naturalization, compared with their peers. Parent self-employment and lower English language proficiency were also associated with lower EITC receipt. With new data collected on state policies, we found that states' granting of drivers' licenses to undocumented people, availability of government information in Spanish, and employer mandates to inform employees were associated with greater EITC receipt among all income-eligible families, including Hispanic families. These findings showcase ways in which information and outreach at the state level can support the equitable receipt of tax refunds and similar types of benefits distributed through the tax system.

Understanding Take-Up Of The Earned Income Tax Credit Among Californians With Low Income.

The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) is the largest poverty alleviation program for families with children in the US, and it has well-documented health effects. However, not all eligible families receive benefits. The Assessing California Communities' Experiences with Safety Net Supports (ACCESS) Study interviewed 411 EITC-eligible Californians with young children to understand low take-up of the federal EITC and California's supplemental CalEITC. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish in 2020 and 2021 to gather information on sociodemographic characteristics, tax filing, and EITC receipt (verified via tax forms). Among those eligible for the EITC or CalEITC, 9 percent of participants did not file taxes; among those who did file taxes, about 84 percent received the EITC, and 83 percent received the CalEITC. Lower likelihood of federal EITC receipt among those eligible and filing taxes was associated with being younger, not speaking English, and not having prior knowledge of the EITC. Lower likelihood of CalEITC receipt among those eligible and filing taxes was associated with not speaking English. These findings can inform policies and community interventions to increase EITC take-up and thereby help address health equity.

Cumulative Payments Through the Earned Income Tax Credit Program in Childhood and Criminal Conviction During Adolescence in the US.

Importance: Childhood poverty is associated with poor health and behavioral outcomes. The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), first implemented in 1975, is the largest cash transfer program for working families with low income in the US. Objective: To assess whether cumulative EITC payments received during childhood are associated with the risk of criminal conviction during adolescence. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study, the analytic sample consisted of US children enrolled in the 1979 National Longitudinal Study of Youth. The children were born between 1979 and 1998 and were interviewed as adolescents (age 15-19 years) between 1994 and 2016. Data analyses were performed from May 2021 to September 2022. Exposure: Cumulative simulated EITC received by the individual's family from birth through age 14 years. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was dichotomous, self-reported conviction for a crime during adolescence (age 14-18 years). A cumulative, simulated measure of mean EITC benefits received by a child's family from birth through age 14 years was derived from federal, state, and family-size differences in EITC eligibility and payments during the study period to capture EITC benefit variation due to differences in policy parameters but not endogenous factors such as changes in household income. Logistic regression models with fixed effects for state and year and robust SEs clustered by mother estimated relative risk of adolescent conviction. Models were adjusted for state-, mother-, and child-level covariates. Results: The analytical sample consisted of 5492 adolescents born between 1979 and 1998; 2762 (50.3%) were male, 1648 (30.0%) were Black, 1125 (20.5%) were Hispanic, and 2719 (49.5%) were not Black or Hispanic. Each additional $1000 of EITC received during childhood was associated with an 11% lower risk of self-reported criminal conviction during adolescence (adjusted odds ratio, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.84-0.95). Adjusted risk differences were larger among boys (-14.2 self-reported convictions per 1000 population [95% CI, -22.0 to -6.3 per 1000 population]) than among girls (-6.2 per 1000 population [95% CI, -10.7 to -1.6 per 1000 population]). Conclusions and Relevance: The findings suggest that income support from the EITC may be associated with reduced youth involvement with the criminal justice system in the US. Cost-benefit analyses of the EITC should consider these longer-term and indirect outcomes.

Earned Income Tax Credit and Youth Violence: Findings from the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System.

Family- and neighborhood-level poverty are associated with youth violence. Economic policies may address this risk factor by reducing parental stress and increasing opportunities. The federal Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) is the largest cash transfer program in the US providing support to low-income working families. Many states have additional EITCs that vary in structure and generosity. To estimate the association between state EITC and youth violence, we conducted a repeated cross-sectional analysis using the variation in state EITC generosity over time by state and self-reported data in the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) from 2005 to 2019. We estimated the association for all youth and then stratified by sex and race and ethnicity. A 10-percentage point greater state EITC was significantly associated with 3.8% lower prevalence of physical fighting among youth, overall (PR: 0.96; 95% CI 0.94-0.99), and for male students, 149 fewer (95% CI: -243, -55) students per 10,000 experiencing physical fighting. A 10-percentage point greater state EITC was significantly associated with 118 fewer (95% CI: -184, -52) White students per 10,000 experiencing physical fighting in the past 12 months while reductions among Black students (75 fewer; 95% CI: -176, 26) and Hispanic/Latino students (14 fewer; 95% CI: -93, 65) were not statistically significant. State EITC generosity was not significantly associated with measures of violence at school. Economic policies that increase financial security and provide financial resources may reduce the burden of youth violence; further attention to their differential benefits among specific population subgroups is warranted.

Estimation of Potential Deaths Averted From Hypothetical US Income Support Policies.

Importance: Income has a negative, nonlinear association with all-cause mortality. Income support policies may prevent deaths among low-income populations by raising their incomes. Objective: To estimate the deaths that could be averted among working-age adults age 18 to 64 years with hypothetical income support policies in the US. Design Setting and Population: An open, multicohort life-table model was developed that simulated working-age adults age 18 to 64 years in the US over 5 to 40 years. Publicly available household income data and previous estimates of the income-mortality association were used to generate mortality rates by income group. Deterministic sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the effect of parameter uncertainty and various model assumptions on the findings. Interventions: In addition to a no-intervention scenario, 4 hypothetical income support policies were modeled: universal basic income, modified LIFT Act, poverty alleviation, and negative income tax. Main Outcome and Measures: The main outcome was the number of deaths averted, which was calculated by subtracting the number of deaths experienced in the no-intervention scenario from the number of deaths experienced with the various income support policies. Results: Base-case assumptions used average mortality rates by age, sex, and income group, a 20-year time horizon, and a 3-year lag time. Universal basic income worth $12 000 per year per individual was estimated to avert the most deaths among working-age adults (42 000-104 000 per year), followed by a negative income tax that guaranteed an income of 133% of the federal poverty level (19 000-67 000 per year). A modified LIFT Act that provided $6000 to individuals with annual household incomes less than $100 000 was estimated to avert 17 000 to 52 000 deaths per year. A targeted approach that alleviated poverty was estimated to prevent 12 000 to 32 000 deaths among the lowest-income, working-age adult population. Results were most sensitive to several inputs and assumptions, primarily the income-based mortality rates, analytic time horizon, and assumed time lag between when a policy was implemented and when individuals experienced the mortality benefit of having higher incomes. Conclusions and Relevance: In this modeling study, 4 hypothetical income support policies were estimated to avert thousands of deaths among working-age US adults every year. Additional research is needed to understand the true association of income gains with mortality. Discussions about the costs and benefits of income support policies should include potential gains in health.

Short-Term Effects of Tax Credits on Rates of Child Maltreatment Reports in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: Poverty and low income are associated with increased risk for child maltreatment. The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and Child Tax Credit (CTC) are among the largest antipoverty programs in the United States. We estimated associations between income transfer payments via the EITC and CTC and child maltreatment reports in the period shortly after families receive payments from these programs. METHODS: We linked weekly EITC and CTC refund data from the Internal Revenue Service to state-specific child maltreatment report data from 48 states and the District of Columbia during the 2015 through 2018 tax seasons (January - April). We leveraged the natural experiment of a legislated change in the timing of EITC and CTC transfer payments to low-income families and quasi-experimental methods to estimate the association between EITC and CTC payments and child maltreatment reports. RESULTS: EITC and CTC payments were associated with lower state-level rates of child maltreatment reports. For each additional $1000 in per-child EITC and CTC tax refunds, state-level rates of reported child maltreatment declined in the week of and 4 weeks following refund payments by an overall estimated 5.0% (95% confidence interval = 2.3%-7.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Federal income assistance programs are associated with immediate reductions in child maltreatment reporting. These results are particularly relevant at this time, as expansions to such programs continue to be discussed at the state and federal levels.

The long-term effect of the Earned Income Tax Credit on women's physical and mental health.

Using a novel method, and data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79), we estimate the cumulative, long-term, causal effect of Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) eligibility on women's physical and mental health at age 50. We find that an increase in lifetime eligible EITC benefits is associated with long-term improvements in physical health, such as reduced occurrence of activity-limiting health problems and reduced reported diagnoses of mild and severe diseases. We explore intermediate health behaviors and outcomes, and find that an increase in lifetime eligible EITC benefits increases the number of hours worked and access to employer-sponsored health insurance, and decreases body mass index in the short-term. We find no significant effects of the EITC on mental health at age 50. Finally, we find that White women benefit disproportionately from the EITC in terms of mobility-related health issues, while Black and Hispanic women benefit in terms of lung-related illnesses like asthma, as well as cancer and stroke.

A Medical Financial Partnership in a Pediatric Medical Home.

The Volunteer Income Tax Assistance (VITA) program is an underutilized free taxpreparation service that directly addresses poverty by maximizing tax refunds. A pediatric medical home (PMH) with an embedded VITA site provides an excellent opportunity for a medical-financial partnership. We sought to assess the knowledge, attitudes, and practices of caregivers of children who used a PMH after embedding a VITA site. We found that a PMH-VITA site was a convenient, trusted, useful, and potentially tax-filing behaviorchanging intervention. Importantly, most caregivers who did not use the PMH-VITA site had no knowledge of availability of free tax filing services but would consider using one the following year. Improved marketing is needed to increase utilization in our target population.

Racial Differences in the Association between the U.S. Earned Income Tax Credit and Birthweight.

OBJECTIVE: We examined whether the largest U.S. poverty alleviation program for families, the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), has different associations with birthweight among women of different racial backgrounds. DESIGN: We analyzed data from the 1985-2015 waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, a longitudinal cohort study of U.S. families (N = 5,230 infants born to 3,672 women). The primary outcome was a continuous measure of birthweight, with secondary outcomes including low birthweight (LBW) and very LBW. Using rich sociodemographic data available in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we calculated the amount of EITC benefit for which women were eligible. We then examined the association of EITC benefit size with each outcome using multivariable regressions, examining the sample overall as well as racial subgroups (White, Black, or other). RESULTS: We found that larger EITC benefits were not associated with increased infant birthweight for the overall sample (18.37 g per $1,000 of EITC; 95% confidence interval [CI], -2.62 to 33.36). There was an increase in birthweight for Black women (40.17 g; 95% CI: 7.32 to 73.02), but not for White women (-1.86 g; 95% CI, -33.33 to 29.60) or women of other races (-13.26 g; 95% CI, -75.90 to 49.38). There was no association between EITC benefit size and the probability of LBW or very LBW. Results were robust to alternative model specifications. CONCLUSIONS: Social policies to address poverty may be effective at decreasing racial disparities in birthweight. Future work should examine potential mechanisms and the benefits of improved health outcomes for children later in life.